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Real Alternatives CNG/LPG/Electric

A debate has once again been raised with regard to the future of clean technology and in particular the electric car. Whilst many of the issues on which this debate is based are genuine, they in fact fail to get to the heart of the matter. It therefore seems worthwhile to address some of central issues directly. 

The Global Problem of Oil’s Monopoly in the Transport Sector

At the heart of the matter is the simple fact that a number of threatening global issues cannot be dealt with unless we end the effective monopoly of petroleum products in the transportation sector:

CNG Bus

Economic security – the monopoly position currently enjoyed by oil leaves the global economic cycle very exposed to the gyrations of both the oil price and political instability in the Arab world – an arena which continues to be very volatile. It is no co-incidence that the recession and financial calamity of 2008 was preceded by a sharp rise in the price of oil or that the same has been true of the softening of the recovery this year. Oil is the only strategic commodity capable of having such a disruptive impact on the economic cycle and frankly the world’s oil reserves are largely concentrated in hands which don’t necessarily appear to act in favor of stability.

• National Security – oil’s monopoly position ensures a continued flow of funds into the national economies of nations who are not particularly friendly to the interests of the US or western democracy as a whole.

• Global warming and associated abnormal weather patterns. I have no wish to get embroiled in the current debate over climate science. However, the risks are clearly there whether or not we fully understand the processes at work. Most importantly, climate science predicts not just a warming of the planet over time but more importantly a proliferation of abnormal weather patterns – more frequent occurrence of droughts and floods etc. That is exactly what we are seeing. If climate science is correct these disruptions will continue to get worse. I don’t believe that the precise interactions at work here can be definitively proven. Only time will tell. However, all the risk is that this is another factor likely to increasingly influence both policy-makers and consumers.

I don’t feel the need to argue the precise detail related to each of these points. The fact of the matter is simply that, taken together, they represent inordinate risks to the global policy environment – risks which we largely face because we accept the monopoly position enjoyed by oil in the transportation sector.

No matter which way you look at it, one or other of these issues will keep rearing their head until we address them. As we have seen this year, developments on a global scale will simply keep bringing us back to the essential dilemma that oil’s monopoly needs to be dealt with.

That will continue to influence both policy-makers and consumers. The pressure on these issues may die down for a while – but only until the next oil shock or some other calamity. Consequently, time and again we will be brought back to the fact that we have to allow and encourage a free market in alternatives to oil in the transportation sector.

The essential point to understand is simply that these issues will keep coming to the forefront of the policy agenda until dealt with – and that both policy-makers and consumers will increasingly move towards solutions.

Resource Scarcity and Replacing Oil as a Strategic Commodity

The problem is of course that given the all-pervasive use of oil in the transport sector, it is extremely difficult to find a single technology or commodity capable of replacing it on its own. This is particularly true in the face of the growing demands on the earth’s limited resources which are rising relentlessly due to both population growth and the shift in global incomes towards poorer populations. Whilst the later factor is of course desirable, it produces an inexorable rise in global demand.

These factors have of course been prominent in creating the very need for clean technology and the related need for an end to oil’s monopoly in the transport sector. However, they also suggest that we are likely to face supply constraints across a range of commodities going forward – particularly those related to new demand for high-tech solutions.

These issues are extremely important and point to a number of conclusions:

• It would be a grave mistake for anyone in the green community to see the electric vehicle or any other single technology as a simple solution to the problem of the way in which we fuel the transport sector.

• It would be an equally grave major mistake for governments to try to pick winners or force a single solution to these problems. The end result would likely be alternative supply constraints and difficulties.

• We need to let the free market do its job.

And this brings us to the heart of the matter. The problem with oil is not simply that it is a limited natural resource with an associated highly volatile price. Many other commodities face the same problems. What makes the problem with oil significantly different is that it is in a monopoly position as the sole strategic commodity in the transport sector.

Where the free market is allowed to function properly, the pricing mechanism creates proper resource allocation and usage, alters the pattern of demand and generates demand for alternatives, stimulating investment and innovation. It’s not perfect but it works. It gets the private sector moving on the deliverance of solutions.

Conversely, there are massive barriers to entry in terms of refueling the transport sector and this does not allow the market to flexibly adjust to supply constraints and use a multiplicity of solutions in order to spread demand across a range of resources.

The bottom line is that governments get themselves into trouble when they pour money speculatively into specific solutions. It’s not the government’s role to pick winners. However, it is the government’s job to act against monopolistic barriers to entry and to ensure a free market. That’s what needs to be done with regard to oil’s monopoly role in the transport sector.

The electric car has a role here. Not as the single solution to the problem but rather as one of a range of potential solutions. The most rational path forward is to break down the barriers to entry, allow free competition and let the market do the rest. A few steps forward seem appropriate:

CNG Trucks

• Greater use of natural gas in the trucking [and bus] sectors. The Natural Gas Act would aid the roll-out of natural gas filling stations across specific trucking corridors. [Including bio-methane from food, human and farm wastes]

• The Open Fuel Standard Act. For the cost of merely $100 per vehicle, new cars can be produced with the capacity to take ethanol, methanol and other biofuels as they are developed. Again, simple free competition. Open the market, innovation will do the rest.

• The role of the electric vehicle is clear. It is certainly not to entirely replace oil. However, it can add an alternative source of power. This is the only way we can spread demand in the transportation sector across a range of finite natural resources. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in particular when combined with the Open Fuel Standard will allow competition between various forms of liquid fuels and electricity. Let the consumer decide.

• Greater use of electricty as a clean energy solution also requires that we move towards cleaner technologies in power generation itself. Increased use of natural gas to meet base load requirements, combined with a 33% Renewable Energy Standard such as that in place in California would seem like a reasonable step forward.

CNG Train in Europe

What is clear is that the issues of population growth, the spread of income growth to the world’s poorer nations and the resultant demand growth, mean that oil simply cannot continue to play its current role for the rest of this century. The solution is not to force the march on any one single alternative. It is to break down the barriers to entry and allow the free market to provide a range of solutions. This is the only way to deal with the very real problems of resource scarcity that we face in the years ahead.

The Forces Behind Electrification Are Already in Play

Most importantly, it appears that the factors behind the increasing development of various forms of EV alternatives are already in play. The single most important factor has probably been the new CAFE standards here in the States. These will help produce more fuel-efficient vehicles based on the internal combustion engine (ICE). However, automakers appear to have realized that in order to make the grade they will have to innovate and adopt a greater use of EV technology across their respective model ranges.

This has, for example, led recently to a number of announcements in the EV field from General Motors (GM), clearly pointing to the company’s commitment to moving forward:

• The announcement of a battery pack deal with A123 Systems – see here

• The announcement of a plug-in hybrid Cadillac ELR, based on the Converj.

• The announcement late last week of a broadening of the company’s collaboration with LG – see here.

What is becoming clear is that we are likely to see a range of approaches and battery sizes. The most interesting is probably Toyota’s (TM) approach with the plug-in Prius, which will have a small Lithium battery capable of covering some 13 miles or so. Nevertheless, it is competition at the fuel pump. Combined with an Open Fuel Standard, this has the potential to be the car of the future. Or certainly one of them.

Battery Efficiencies and Cost Reduction

Opponents of clean energy and the electric vehicle for some peculiar reason like to show charts of the improvement in disk capacity or CPU speed in the IT industry compared to, for example, battery energy density. The purpose is no doubt to illustrate the point that the laws of chemistry do not allow electric batteries to provide the kind of exponential improvements in efficiency as seen in the IT industry and described by Moore’s Law. Whilst this is true, it is also entirely irrelevant. There is absolutely no reason to expect battery technology to replicate the efficiency gains of the IT world. Most importantly, such efficiency gains are not exhibited by the internal combustion engine nor in any other technology that electric batteries or clean technology actually competes with in the real world. So let’s leave the wonders of the IT industry aside and focus on the realities of energy and the transport sector.

It is nevertheless true that the electric batteries currently in production are certainly expensive and have not in general managed to breach the question of range anxiety without significant cost or a back-up generator. So where will the improvements come from? Let me focus on a few significant points:

• Any analysis based on the reputed cost structure faced by A123 Systems (AONE), which puts at battery costs at $1,000 per kWh, is not particularly insightful in a discussion of the future of the EV market as a whole. Developments in the overall EV market will clearly be driven by the more efficient producers, of which A123 Systems is currently not one.

• Tesla’s (TSLA) Model S appears to have significant potential to alter the metrics in the EV market. The company has of course not released cost details of its new battery packs. However, the company has provided literature suggesting that on a $ per kWh basis the battery pack of the Model S is down to 42% of the cost of the original battery pack for the first version of the Roadster. The Roadster Sport had already gotten those costs down to 69%, so the gains continue to be impressive. The further expected gains are no doubt based on the Custom 18650 automotive cell in development with Panasonic.

• That is why Tesla appears to be able to suggest that when the 300 mile version of the Model S is released next year it will cost somewherearound $75,000. There appears to be a demand for such a luxury EV and those metrics start to offer an interesting option in the luxury car market.

• Efficiency gains that have been made elsewhere should also be recognized. For example, the new Ford Focus BEV has a 70-mile single-charge range, similar to that offered by the Nissan Leaf. However, the company claims that its 23 kwh battery pack can be charged with a Level 2, 240-volt charger in 3-4 hours - almost twice as fast as the Leaf.

• Looking forward on a more medium-term basis, potential advances will no doubt come from new innovation related to alternative battery technologies – particularly related to Vanadium for example. Again, it is not necessary to try and pick winners. It’s simply the case that competition will spur innovation. These new technologies are of course a threat to lithium battery specialists such as A123 Systems. However, they are nothing but a potential boon to a company such as Tesla, who is not tied to a particular battery system and who could work with whatever a Panasonic or alternative can provide in the future most cost effectively.

• Perhaps the most significant point is that further gains, particularly in lower end commuter-orientated EVs and PHEVs, are likely to come from other production advances outside of battery technology. A critical issue is likely to be weight-shedding and related new materials for example. This is no doubt the key to GM’s expanded relationship with LG Group. GM had previously been collaborating with LG Chem on the battery packs for the Volt and the Ampera. However, the company has recently announced that the relationship between the two companies will be expanded to involve LG Group as a whole. This will allow the Korean company to offer its expertise in other areas, particularly related to 'vehicle structures and architectures'. See more detail here. And Tesla of course is already working with aluminum in order to get the weight of the Model S down.

• Finally, the introduction of Level 3, 480-volt chargers is also significant to the potential growth of the EV market. This will be particularly true once they are installed where they are most needed, across the nation's Interstate highways - as is for example planned with regard to the Pacific Coast Green Highway. These Level 3, 480-volt rapid chargers can provide a 19 kwh charge to a Leaf for example in 30 minutes. Some other EVs can be charged more rapidly. Drving from LA to the Canadian border in a Tesla will be a breeze.

All of this suggests that in fact there is no slow crawl ahead when it comes to overall efficiencies for EV vehicles. Most importantly, such efficiencies in terms of the performance of the cars as a whole will not be limited to efficiencies in battery technology.

What to Invest in: Tesla

• As discussed above, Tesla (TSLA) is a low cost player in terms of the company's battery power train technology - despite being well placed in the luxury market.

• The company has developed a significant brand name.

• When the Model S is first produced in 2012, sales appear likely to go well. The company already has customer orders for some 5,550 units.The company's target of 20,000 unit sales in full year 2013 seems reasonable.

• Tesla has an ongoing relationship with Toyota and seems likely to play a significant role in the roll-out of Toyota's EV program. The suggestion is that the two companies are currently negotiating over a $1bn deal - more detail here.

In my disclosure below, I have stated that I own no stock in any of the companies discussed. This is simply because, having had a reasonable month in difficult conditions, I decided to use Friday's rally to lock in profits on my clean technology portfolio. I intend to use any weakness into September to buy back my positions in stocks such as Tesla.

Finally, the bottom line is that the global issues discussed above will keep bringing both policy-makers and consumers back to the same questions. There is only one answer. It's time to break oil's monopoly in the transportation sector - and to put our trust in the free market and American innovation.

Disclosure: I have no positions in the stocks discussed.

About the Author: Clean Energy Intel is a free investment advisory service produced by a retired hedge fund strategist who also manages his own money inside a Clean Energy investment fund.

Autogas Alliance: Published

Autogas Alliance supply brand new vehciles and in practice this means the Fleet Market. So the Alliance has had its first reference in Fleet News:

Also see:

http://view.digipage.net/?id=fnejune2011  page 13

http://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/2011/6/10/alliance-could-spark-lpg-increase/39785/

This publication and our ability to supply new cars and vans all running on LPG is good news. Added to our ability to put bulk LPG tanks into Fleet premises, means that Fleet Managers can control their fuel costs, starting from a very low base!

Autogas Alliance: A New Frontier

An alliance, due to be launched in July, along with the consent of some of the UK’s major vehicle manufacturers, could mean that fleets will find making the switch from petrol and diesel models to LPG not only cost effective but better for their total carbon footprint.


“This alliance was formed after the success of New LPG vehicles being supplied into the Taxi Market. As this is a real test of a vehicle’s endurance, with some taxi’s having exceeded 80,000 miles per annum, it was felt with this reliability there would be a considerable interest if launched into the Fleet Market. Fleet Operators will have to consider LPG as a cost effective and viable option to petrol and diesel vehicles. As a part of the alliance’s offer, there is also the ability to install gas tanks on customer sites which allows the Fleet Operator to reduce his fuel and servicing costs even further” stated Rob Breuilly Managing Director of the vehicle supply arm.

There are thought to be around 150,000 LPG vehicles on UK roads, whilst Europe boasts more than 7million, selling around 4,000 units per week, this is due to some European Governments still subsidising the costs of the conversion.

Breuilly’s agreement with the Manufacturers will allow fleets to order petrol vehicles that have the capability to be converted to LPG, and thanks to economies of scale, provide an extremely attractive package for any small to large Fleet Buyer , thereby increasing the savings even further Combined with substantially reduced running costs of LPG vehicles, makes the case indisputable; (current pump prices standing at 77.5p/litre, according to www.petrolprices.com, compared with 137.2p/litre for unleaded and 142.2p/litre for diesel). And, if fleets have their own LPG tank installed on site, the cost could drop to just 67.5p/l, according to John Burke of Autogas Network. As stated above, the alliance has already run a trial of the system with Vauxhall in the UK’s Taxi Market, and so far has realised a return of 9.1p/mile for converted LPG vehicles as against 12.6p/mile for diesel and 17.1p/mile for petrol.


 With 1400 LPG filling stations currently in the UK, this is rising daily as the interest from the major Supermarket chains grows to install gas pumps in all their stations, it would seem that the UK have been slow to embrace this technology, following the Government withdrawal of subsidies, something that Burke puts down to “our nervous approach to anything new”.
 “Here in the UK we are so far behind Europe when it comes to taking up LPG and I think it’s about time we re-appraised the advances made in LPG technology.
.
 The alliance believes the launch has come at the right time as by 2020 there is a European requirement to ensure that 20% of vehicles on our roads are running on alternative fuels (including Hydrogen and electric): “Hydrogen and electric vehicles are still too far away to have an immediate effect – it could be 10 or even 20 years before we see a real impact from
these vehicles.

But LPG is here now!

All we hear about in the press is focused on diesel and CO2 emissions.

It is “this obsession with CO2” from both Government and industry that has clouded the environmental issue, claims John Burke. “Diesels may be pumping out lower CO2 levels today but they still produce toxic NOx, hydrocarbons and Benzines which all affect people’s health. We seem to be living in a hydrocarbon soup and yet have failed to realise that there are virtually no particulates produced from an LPG vehicle.” In fact, LPG vehicles are already meeting environmental standards for Euro VI on NOx, while PM levels are too low to measure.

The Alliance expects to sell 3-4000 vehicles a year within the first three years and has already placed substantial forward orders. Lead time is expected to be about eight weeks depending on the size of the order.

For further information as to vehicle availability contact John Burke on 07886 801609
www.dualfuelsavings.com  or info@dualfuelsavings.co.uk
www.autogas-alliance.com  or info@autogas-alliance.com

Act NOW to introduce LPG and CNG vehicles into LONDON

Stop wasting time future gazing with Electric and Hydrogen vehicles. We need to take action NOW.

Taken from today's FT the following article simply highlights to need to act which we have been stressing for a number of years now;

Please respect FT.com's ts&cs and copyright policy which allow you to: share links; copy content for personal use; & redistribute limited extracts. Email ftsales.support@ft.com to buy additional rights or use this link to reference the article - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/696b70ac-6cd8-11e0-83fe-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1KHefs7AR

"Holidaymakers took to the roads on Good Friday for the Easter weekend getaway in greater numbers than usual, as environmental campaigners warned that the London mayor’s measures to tackle pollution in the capital were failing.

Trafficmaster said the roads on Friday morning were busier than usual for the annual Easter getaway, taking advantage of what weather forecasters were predicting would be a weekend of bright sunshine and temperatures in the mid-20s. Traffic delays on Friday morning were reported on coastal routes in east Anglia, southern England and western England."

"The combination of the Easter holiday period and the fine weather prompted a government warning on Thursday about “summer smog”. The department for environment, food and rural affairs said elevated levels of PM10, or particulates, and ozone were expected to reach high or moderates readings across England and Wales until at least Sunday."

"While such alerts are not uncommon, Defra acknowledged that it was its earliest alert for eight years. It advised the public to take sensible precautions, advising against short car journeys and taking outdoor exercise in the afternoon to reduce exposure to ozone."

"Defra said the UK was meeting air quality targets in most of the country, but that those for nitrogen dioxide, ozone and particulates in some parts of the country were “more challenging”. The department of health said cases of hospital admissions caused by pollution would be publicised in quarterly updates."

"According to Clean Air for London, the legal standard for PM10 in the capital has been breached two months earlier than last year. Simon Birkett of the campaign group said London mayor Boris Johnson had ignored advice from consultants on action to tackle excessive PM10 levels at London hotspots and had failed to introduce a low emission zone for central London."

At Autogas Network we have been campaigning for a programme to convert London Transport buses from diesel to CNG as part of a rolling programme of planned engine renewal. At the same time we have been campaigning to supply LPG taxis into London to displace aging diesel taxis. 

All diesel vehicles contribute toward the P10 problem. By focusing on CO2 only we have lost sight of the real pollution risks.

Spend £30,000 on Electric Car Batteries or Lease a LPG Car NOW?

The great electric car debate is lumbering on with all the obvious benefits being discounted into the future. Every journalist and motoring expert is already on this 'band wagon' with 'facts,' 'opinions', and preferences.

Battery pack leasing options, technological improvements, fast charger systems, capacitor technology, flywheel power reuse, home power chargers etc, etc. Then there is the 'magical' appearance of the required infrastructure, and increased electricity consumption (from inefficient power generation Coal/Oil/Gas/Nuclear?) from our creaking national grids.

BUT no one can escape the fact that WE ARE NOT READY FOR THE ELECTRIC CAR -YET!

So what can the concerned motorist, facing ever higher fuel costs and knowing that the environmental damage from tradition fuels and especially diesel is doing to our cities? Why is so much attention being spent on the future when we already need solutions right now, this minute.

The most overlooked and least marketed solution is already staring us in the face.

Liquefied Petroleum Gas or LPG has an existing and growing infrastructure in place, 1,440 stations in the UK and 33,000 in Europe for the 7,000,000 vehicles in Europe already using LPG. So lets wake up Britain and look at this logical and obvious solution for now, whilst we let the experts 'fight it out' as to the best solution for the electric car for 2021 at least!

Some LPG Lease Vehicles Vauxhall Approved Insignias ready for Delivery

We have places to go right now and we need low running costs and much cleaner environmental emissions across the full range of noxious substances that petrol and especially diesel vehicles pump into our city's airspace.

'Dirty' Diesel but Clean LPG

Autogas Network and 4 substantial commercial partners are about to launch the answer. A range of manufacturer approved, LPG converted brand new vehicles for immediate lease for the public and fleet markets. And what's better than that - they will be less expensive than the plain petrol counterparts!

So cheap to run and cheap to buy - what a combination.

We are especially keen to talk to all fleet markets as we are able to offer a LPG re-fueling station with fleets above a certain size so that they can buy in at 'wholesale' LPG prices for their transport fuels. This includes vans as well as cars. Enquiries CLICK HERE

Why Can't CO2 be Easier to Understand - for Taxi Drivers

“Carbon footprints, Electric Vehicles, Hydrogen Fuel Cells, CO2, NOX, Benzines, and Particulates” just what are the environmentalists/local authority air quality people/licensing authorities talking about. And how can I ever reduce my Taxi’s running costs?

Well it’s all a question of priorities. The ‘Greens’ want electric and hydrogen fuelled vehicles right now; trouble is they are just not practical at the present, and nor are likely to be within the next 5-10 years. It’s the infrastructure you see. It’s not there. …Infrastructure?

When there is a hydrogen filling station every few miles, that is not subsidised by millions in grant support, then we might have an infrastructure. And when battery power allows you to re-charge in 5 minutes tops, then we will have an infrastructure. But both those are a long way off, decades maybe.

Right now there are ‘alternative’ inexpensive fuels out there and there is already the infrastructure – filling stations. Not only that, our partners can install a re-fuelling station right now. And you could be filling up at around 65p per litre including VAT at 20%. This fuel is called LPG. Its big in Europe, 7 million vehicles use it already. But in the UK we only have 155,000. Not only that the EU (in one of their more intelligent moves) has made the suggestion that by 2020 that 20% of all vehicles run on a fuel other than petrol or diesel. The front runner here, again is LPG or Liquefied Petroleum Gas.

LPG Bi-Fuel Brand New Taxi

At Autogas Network Sales Ltd we and our partners the Taxi Shop can supply ready converted Petrol/LPG vehicles for extremely competitive prices. In fact sometimes less than diesel equivalents. We are changing the way the ‘public’ perceive LPG.

LPG is a by-product of Natural Gas exploration and the Petrol Refining Industry. In the UK we actually export LPG as we cannot uses all that we have available. Which is pretty daft with petrol and diesel hovering around £1.40 per litre irrespective of the Chancellors 1p discount (to the current 59 p of duty!).

So we have in the UK a ready supply of inexpensive LPG. We have the technology and availability to supply bi-fuel petrol/LPG Taxis. But what is missing is the understanding and the ‘mis-information’ bandied about by the electric and hydrogen lobby who are looking for massive Government handouts.

The truth is that compared to the diesel engine LPG is exceptionally ‘clean’ and at least 99% more ‘environmentally friendly’. But the ‘powers that be’ only compare by CO2 levels. They don’t do the full job. If you talk to the environmental officer in any local authority, they will talk about ‘Air Quality’. But it’s the diesel engine that’s the biggest culprit here. You all know about soot and particulates – I mean you can see them every time a diesel driver puts his/her foot on the accelerator pedal. That stuff is bad. Especially in built up areas with diesel buses, taxis and cars all queuing in a congestion charging ‘nightmare’. No wonder more kids have asthma than ever before.

Emissions by Fuel Types: Gas Fuels are Cleanest

But there real damning stuff is what you cannot see. The Benzines and NOx in both petrol and diesels fuels. It’s all down to the complexity of the molecules. Diesel is the most complex, LPG far far simpler. The more complex the molecule the more pollution. That’s why the Hydrogen lobby are so powerful, it’s the simplest molecule of all.

So to help your wallet AND the environment think LPG. On the face of it diesel and LPG have similar CO2 levels, but in reality LPG has none of the other pollutants. It’s the sensible choice for the next 10 years until we perfect the ‘fuel cell’. But that’s another story we can tell another time.”